Stock of the Week: Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX)

Our Stock of the Week is Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX). A much-ballyhooed IPO this summer, SPCX priced at $135 on June 12 in the largest offering in market history and closed its first day at about $161. As is the case with most IPOs, the stock cooled quickly thereafter but is now developing in a way that could offer solid trading opportunities in a liquid, well-known name.

For some context, SpaceX is kind of like a Transformer (there’s more than meets the eye, ba-dum-tsss). It sells Starlink satellite internet service to homes, ships, and planes, and it rents computing power to companies building AI models. That AI business brought in $2.6 billion in Q2, more than triple the year before and already bigger than the rocket business. Notably, Evercore ISI believes the Street is underestimating how much “compute” SpaceX will have in the second half of 2026.

On September 25, Musk posted on X that about 780,000 Nvidia chips are online across SpaceX’s two Colossus data centers, with the first of three 220,000-chip batches of Nvidia’s newest GB300 chips due this week, a second in November, and a third in late December “if we get lucky”. Evercore estimates that two batches would take capacity to about 2.3 gigawatts and three would take it to 2.7, versus consensus at 2.1, which should push 2027 revenue and profits significantly ahead of current estimates. Essentially, a gigawatt measures how much electricity the data centers can draw to run all those AI chips at once (one gigawatt is roughly the output of a large nuclear reactor), so it works as shorthand for how much computing power SpaceX has available to rent out. Each batch adds another big block of that capacity, and since SpaceX gets paid for renting it to AI companies, more chips online means more revenue that Evercore thinks Wall Street hasn’t fully priced in.

From a technical perspective, the SPCX chart has shown good relative strength over the past month while most space stocks have struggled, holding support around $145 even as new supply has hit the market. About 328 million shares held by early investors and employees unlocked on September 24, the latest in a string of unlocks since the summer. The last two releases of that size, on August 20 and September 9, each knocked the stock down about 4%, but this one pushed shares to about $146 intraday before closing nearly unchanged, and the stock bounced again on a retest of that level on Friday. Shares briefly slipped under $145 on September 15 before getting back above $150 the next day. Absorbing that much supply without breaking suggests buyers are willing to step in. More supply is coming, with about 798 million shares unlocking on December 8 and Musk’s stake of roughly 6.4 billion shares becoming eligible for sale on June 12, 2027. That could add pressure, but scheduled selling can also create opportunities to add on weakness, and many big institutions likely planned to build positions by buying the unlocks rather than chasing the IPO.

As always, we’d avoid chasing any early strength on Monday morning, and would look to trade this name incrementally on pullbacks toward support as the chart develops, stepping back to reassess if $145 gives way on heavy volume.